| Floor Pivot Points | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | 3rd Sup | 2nd Sup | 1st Sup | Pivot | 1st Res | 2nd Res | 3rd Res |
| EUR/USD | 1.3718 | 1.3844 | 1.4072 | 1.4198 | 1.4426 | 1.4552 | 1.4780 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5748 | 1.5903 | 1.6203 | 1.6358 | 1.6658 | 1.6813 | 1.7113 |
| USD/JPY | 78.74 | 79.72 | 80.25 | 81.23 | 81.76 | 82.74 | 83.27 |
| EUR/JPY | 111.71 | 112.78 | 114.23 | 115.30 | 116.75 | 117.82 | 119.27 |
| GBP/JPY | 129.26 | 130.25 | 131.78 | 132.77 | 134.30 | 135.29 | 136.82 |
| Woodie’s Pivot Points | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | 2nd Sup | 1st Sup | Pivot | 1st Res | 2nd Res |
| EUR/USD | 1.3870 | 1.4124 | 1.4224 | 1.4478 | 1.4578 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5939 | 1.6277 | 1.6394 | 1.6732 | 1.6849 |
| USD/JPY | 79.61 | 80.04 | 81.12 | 81.55 | 82.63 |
| EUR/JPY | 112.88 | 114.41 | 115.40 | 116.93 | 117.92 |
| GBP/JPY | 130.39 | 132.04 | 132.91 | 134.56 | 135.43 |
| Camarilla Pivot Points | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | 4th Sup | 3rd Sup | 2nd Sup | 1st Sup | 1st Res | 2nd Res | 3rd Res | 4th Res |
| EUR/USD | 1.4106 | 1.4204 | 1.4236 | 1.4269 | 1.4333 | 1.4366 | 1.4398 | 1.4496 |
| GBP/USD | 1.6254 | 1.6379 | 1.6421 | 1.6462 | 1.6546 | 1.6587 | 1.6629 | 1.6754 |
| USD/JPY | 79.96 | 80.37 | 80.51 | 80.65 | 80.93 | 81.07 | 81.21 | 81.62 |
| EUR/JPY | 114.28 | 114.98 | 115.21 | 115.44 | 115.90 | 116.13 | 116.36 | 117.06 |
| GBP/JPY | 131.91 | 132.61 | 132.84 | 133.07 | 133.53 | 133.76 | 133.99 | 134.69 |
| Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
| Resistance | 1.4489 | 1.6736 | 81.50 | 117.29 | 134.80 |
| Support | 1.4135 | 1.6281 | 79.99 | 114.77 | 132.28 |
| Fibonacci Retracement Levels | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pairs | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
| 100.0% | 1.4323 | 1.6512 | 82.20 | 116.38 | 133.77 |
| 61.8% | 1.4188 | 1.6338 | 81.62 | 115.42 | 132.81 |
| 50.0% | 1.4146 | 1.6285 | 81.45 | 115.12 | 132.51 |
| 38.2% | 1.4104 | 1.6231 | 81.27 | 114.82 | 132.21 |
| 23.6% | 1.4053 | 1.6164 | 81.05 | 114.45 | 131.84 |
| 0.0% | 1.3969 | 1.6057 | 80.69 | 113.86 | 131.25 |
EUR/USD Rises on Poor US Pending Homes Sales, Gains Limited by Consumer Sentiment
EUR/USD advanced today as the tide of bad news from Europe seems to calm down, while the US house market performed simply terrible last month. The positive sentiment of the US consumers currently pushes the currency pair to the downside, though. EUR/USD trades near 1.4235 now after it jumped as high as 1.4298 as of 12:30 GMT.
The reports about personal income and spending in the US was released today. It showed that personal income increased 0.4% in April, the same rate of growth as in March, being in line with forecasts. Personal spending also rose 0.4% in April, while experts predicted that the rate of increase would be the same as in March — 0.5%. (Event A on the chart.)
Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 74.3 in May from 69.8 in April. Forex traders expected the index to be near the preliminary estimate of 72.4. (Event B on the chart.)
Pending home sales edged down sharply by 11.6% in April from March, following the increase by 3.5% (revised down from 5.1%) in March from February. The market expectations were too optimistic to await drop by only 0.9%. (Event B on the chart.)
The reports about personal income and spending in the US was released today. It showed that personal income increased 0.4% in April, the same rate of growth as in March, being in line with forecasts. Personal spending also rose 0.4% in April, while experts predicted that the rate of increase would be the same as in March — 0.5%. (Event A on the chart.)
Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 74.3 in May from 69.8 in April. Forex traders expected the index to be near the preliminary estimate of 72.4. (Event B on the chart.)
Pending home sales edged down sharply by 11.6% in April from March, following the increase by 3.5% (revised down from 5.1%) in March from February. The market expectations were too optimistic to await drop by only 0.9%. (Event B on the chart.)
US Economic Growth Below Forecasts, EUR/USD Goes Higher
May 26th, 2011
EUR/USD advanced today as the US economy expanded less than anticipated in the first quarter of this year and jobless claims unexpectedly increased. The currency pair jumped at the opening of the trading session and held its gains, slowly advancing on the negative US reports. EUR/USD trades currently at 1.4200.
US GDP grew 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, according to the preliminary estimate, following the 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2010. The reading was the same as in the previous “advance” estimate, while market participants expected a higher reading of 2.2%. (Event A on the chart.)
Initial jobless claims rose to 424k last week from the previous week’s revised figure of 414k. Forecasts promised a decrease to 403k. (Event A on the chart.)
US GDP grew 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, according to the preliminary estimate, following the 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2010. The reading was the same as in the previous “advance” estimate, while market participants expected a higher reading of 2.2%. (Event A on the chart.)
Initial jobless claims rose to 424k last week from the previous week’s revised figure of 414k. Forecasts promised a decrease to 403k. (Event A on the chart.)
EUR/USD Down, Recovers on Poor US Economic Data
EUR/USD slipped today as the European woes continue to plague markets, but recently it quickly rose, almost erasing losses. The report about durable goods orders was even worse than pessimistic forecasts. Forecast for tomorrow GDP report are optimistic, though. EUR/USD trades at 1.4091 now after dropping as low as 1.4012.
Durable goods orders dropped sharply by 3.6% in April, following the 4.4% rally in March. The median forecast was 2.0% decline. (Event A on the chart.)
Crude oil inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week and are in the lower limit of the average range. (Event B on the chart.)
Durable goods orders dropped sharply by 3.6% in April, following the 4.4% rally in March. The median forecast was 2.0% decline. (Event A on the chart.)
Crude oil inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week and are in the lower limit of the average range. (Event B on the chart.)
EUR/USD Jumps on Positive German Business Climate
EUR/USD rose today after two sessions of decline. The decline of the currency pair was caused by concerns that the European economy is weakening, but the report about the German business climate (Event A on the chart) showed that the economic conditions remained stable. The US data was positive for the hosing market, but quite bad for the manufacturing. EUR/USD trades now at 1.4105.
New home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 323k in April, above the revised March rate of 301k. A pleasant surprise to market participants, who expected growth to only 305k. (Event B on the chart.)
Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -6 in May from 10 in April, and that was an unpleasant surprise as it was expected to stay unchanged. Yet the reports said that “manufacturers were generally optimistic about their future prospects” despite the slowing activity. (Event B on the chart.)
New home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 323k in April, above the revised March rate of 301k. A pleasant surprise to market participants, who expected growth to only 305k. (Event B on the chart.)
Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -6 in May from 10 in April, and that was an unpleasant surprise as it was expected to stay unchanged. Yet the reports said that “manufacturers were generally optimistic about their future prospects” despite the slowing activity. (Event B on the chart.)
How Big Is Your Forex?
I mean how big are your positions when you trade Forex? Do you trade with cents or do you prefer mini-Forex lots? Or is that too small for you and you trade with full-size lots or even million-unit lots? Personally, I prefer cent lots for their flexibility, but when I need to open a rather big position (rarely), I switch to standard Forex lots. Some brokers don’t even offer anything lower than mini lots, others focus on micro and smaller lots.
Trend Indicator with Filtering Option
If you want some help in determining the current trend direction for your trades, then my new Dots indicator is for you. It’s based on NonLagDot MetaTrader indicator. Unfortunately, the original indicator is prone to repainting its previous chart arrows based on the new data and thus isn’t a good source of trading signals. Dots doesn’t repaint but its signals aren’t perfect — there are many false indications. To fight these wrong signals, a filter property is introduced. Adjusting this input parameter, a trader may get a much better result in terms of signal accuracy. Here is the list of Dots’ features:
- Modify indicator’s period and applied price.
- Simple intuitive display and very fast calculation speed.
- Relies on price change angle calculation.
- Both vertical and horizontal display shift can be modified.
Forex Technical Analysis for Week 05/23—05/27
May 21st, 2011
| Floor Pivot Points | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | 3rd Sup | 2nd Sup | 1st Sup | Pivot | 1st Res | 2nd Res | 3rd Res |
| EUR/USD | 1.3724 | 1.3886 | 1.4022 | 1.4184 | 1.4320 | 1.4482 | 1.4618 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5920 | 1.6012 | 1.6120 | 1.6212 | 1.6320 | 1.6412 | 1.6520 |
| USD/JPY | 79.20 | 79.91 | 80.80 | 81.51 | 82.40 | 83.11 | 84.00 |
| EUR/JPY | 109.82 | 111.61 | 113.65 | 115.44 | 117.48 | 119.27 | 121.31 |
| GBP/JPY | 128.11 | 129.24 | 130.90 | 132.03 | 133.69 | 134.82 | 136.48 |
| Woodie’s Pivot Points | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | 2nd Sup | 1st Sup | Pivot | 1st Res | 2nd Res |
| EUR/USD | 1.3880 | 1.4010 | 1.4178 | 1.4308 | 1.4476 |
| GBP/USD | 1.6016 | 1.6128 | 1.6216 | 1.6328 | 1.6416 |
| USD/JPY | 79.96 | 80.89 | 81.56 | 82.49 | 83.16 |
| EUR/JPY | 111.67 | 113.78 | 115.50 | 117.61 | 119.33 |
| GBP/JPY | 129.37 | 131.17 | 132.16 | 133.96 | 134.95 |
| Camarilla Pivot Points | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | 4th Sup | 3rd Sup | 2nd Sup | 1st Sup | 1st Res | 2nd Res | 3rd Res | 4th Res |
| EUR/USD | 1.3995 | 1.4077 | 1.4104 | 1.4132 | 1.4186 | 1.4214 | 1.4241 | 1.4323 |
| GBP/USD | 1.6118 | 1.6173 | 1.6191 | 1.6210 | 1.6246 | 1.6265 | 1.6283 | 1.6338 |
| USD/JPY | 80.81 | 81.25 | 81.40 | 81.54 | 81.84 | 81.98 | 82.13 | 82.57 |
| EUR/JPY | 113.58 | 114.64 | 114.99 | 115.34 | 116.04 | 116.39 | 116.74 | 117.80 |
| GBP/JPY | 131.03 | 131.79 | 132.05 | 132.30 | 132.82 | 133.07 | 133.33 | 134.09 |
| Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pair | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
| Resistance | 1.4401 | 1.6366 | 82.76 | 118.38 | 134.26 |
| Support | 1.4103 | 1.6166 | 81.16 | 114.55 | 131.47 |
| Fibonacci Retracement Levels | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pairs | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
| 100.0% | 1.4345 | 1.6304 | 82.22 | 117.23 | 133.16 |
| 61.8% | 1.4231 | 1.6228 | 81.61 | 115.77 | 132.09 |
| 50.0% | 1.4196 | 1.6204 | 81.42 | 115.32 | 131.77 |
| 38.2% | 1.4161 | 1.6180 | 81.23 | 114.86 | 131.44 |
| 23.6% | 1.4117 | 1.6151 | 81.00 | 114.30 | 131.03 |
| 0.0% | 1.4047 | 1.6104 | 80.62 | 113.40 | 130.37 |
5 Forex Blogs I Recommend Reading
I’m not a big fan of lists, but when it comes to trading, it’s very important not to waste time on reading some nonsense and useless posts. That’s why I’d like to introduce a list of Forex blogs that I strongly recommend as the useful sources of daily market information, education, fundamental insights and trading philosophy:
Forex Crunch — this blog has almost everything: fundamental & technical analysis, important industry news, posts on related trading issues (e.g. binary options), etc. Although, it may seem to be lacking some depth for the enthusiastic technical traders, it’s a great currency trading resource for almost everyone else. Maintained by Yohay Elam since 2008.
fxmadness.com — a personal blog of Mike P. Kulej. While there are not so many posts there, each of them is quitewell-thought and stays close to the main topic — the Forex market. Occasionally, some insights regarding the closely related markets (such as silver and gold) are offered. The focus is always on the synthesis of the fundamental data and technical charts. Exists since July 2008.
ForexLive — a live stream of the Forex market events, trading journal entries and authors’ perception of the current situation. Important macroeconomic news releases are also presented and discussed every weekday. You won’t find some fancy new MetaTrader indicator here, but you’ll definitely keep yourselfup-to-date with the market info if you follow this blog. Four authors are frequent here: Jamie Coleman, Gerry Davies, Sean Lee and Anna Timone. Live since 2009.
Market Anthropology — not a standard financial trading blog. It was founded by Erik Swarts in March 2011. The biggest problem of this blog is that it rarely touches Forex topics (usually the posts are about the stock markets), but when it does, the provided ideas will certainly be original and the foundation for them will definitely surprise you.
ForexBlog.org — one of the oldest (created back in 2004) Forex trading blogs. The posts usually explore some interesting and actual problem and contain a lot of charts, historical references and other important data. If you want to get a grasp of something happening in the market right now, this blog is your destination. Adam Kritzer is the lead author here.
Forex Crunch — this blog has almost everything: fundamental & technical analysis, important industry news, posts on related trading issues (e.g. binary options), etc. Although, it may seem to be lacking some depth for the enthusiastic technical traders, it’s a great currency trading resource for almost everyone else. Maintained by Yohay Elam since 2008.
fxmadness.com — a personal blog of Mike P. Kulej. While there are not so many posts there, each of them is quite
ForexLive — a live stream of the Forex market events, trading journal entries and authors’ perception of the current situation. Important macroeconomic news releases are also presented and discussed every weekday. You won’t find some fancy new MetaTrader indicator here, but you’ll definitely keep yourself
Market Anthropology — not a standard financial trading blog. It was founded by Erik Swarts in March 2011. The biggest problem of this blog is that it rarely touches Forex topics (usually the posts are about the stock markets), but when it does, the provided ideas will certainly be original and the foundation for them will definitely surprise you.
ForexBlog.org — one of the oldest (created back in 2004) Forex trading blogs. The posts usually explore some interesting and actual problem and contain a lot of charts, historical references and other important data. If you want to get a grasp of something happening in the market right now, this blog is your destination. Adam Kritzer is the lead author here.
EUR/USD Volatile, US Economy Looks Bad
EUR/USD jumped up and down today. The euro weakened the decline of stocks and commodities drive investors to safe assets, but the dollar also loses strength as the US economy continues to show signs of weakness. The US jobless claims decreased last week and that was good news, but virtually all other reports today were very bad. EUR/USD trades now near its opening level of 1.4247.
Initial jobless claims decreased to 409k last week from the previous week’s revised figure of 438k, posting the biggest decline than the expected drop to 421k. (Event A on the chart.)
Existing-home sales edged down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in April from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in March. The drop wasn’t big, but the report was rather bad, nevertheless, as an increase to 5.21 million was predicted by specialists. (Event B on the chart.)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index decreased to 3.9 in May from 18.5 in April, the lowest level since October 2010. A disastrous result, considering that forecasts put the index to 20.2. (Event B on the chart.)
US leading indicators declined 0.3% in April, following a 0.7% increase in March. Anotherworse-than-expected result, compared with forecasts of a 0.2% increase. (Event B on the chart.)
Yesterday, the report on crude oil inventories was released, showing that the stockpiles of crude remained unchanged from the previous week, while total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels last week.
FOMC meeting minutes were also released yesterday, but they didn’t gave any particularly new information. The inflation is going higher because of higher food and fuel prices, but this influence is considered temporary, so no change to the monetary policy is expected.
Initial jobless claims decreased to 409k last week from the previous week’s revised figure of 438k, posting the biggest decline than the expected drop to 421k. (Event A on the chart.)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index decreased to 3.9 in May from 18.5 in April, the lowest level since October 2010. A disastrous result, considering that forecasts put the index to 20.2. (Event B on the chart.)
US leading indicators declined 0.3% in April, following a 0.7% increase in March. Another
Yesterday, the report on crude oil inventories was released, showing that the stockpiles of crude remained unchanged from the previous week, while total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels last week.
FOMC meeting minutes were also released yesterday, but they didn’t gave any particularly new information. The inflation is going higher because of higher food and fuel prices, but this influence is considered temporary, so no change to the monetary policy is expected.
